Lecturer in Statistics · UNSW Sydney
Lachlan Astfalck
Spatial and spectral statistics, uncertainty quantification — and a lot of applied work in water.
About
I’m a Lecturer in Statistics at the University of New South Wales, with interest in both methodological and applied research. On the methods side: spectral analysis, complex spatio-temporal data, emulation of engineering computer models, and many aspects of uncertainty quantification. I also like water — I do lots of applied work in oceanography, glaciology and hydrodynamics.
Previously I was a Research Fellow for the TIDE ARC ITRH in the School of Physics, Mathematics and Computing at The University of Western Australia, and a Research Fellow in the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds. I’ve also worked in ecological restoration, materials engineering, and prognostics and health management, and consulted for the Australian Wildlife Conservancy.
Selected research
HB Moss, LC Astfalck, T Cowperthwaite, C Doumont, S Willis, P Hennig et al. (2026). ‘Conditioning Gaussian Processes on Almost Anything’. Submitted to NeurIPS 2026. preprint
LC Astfalck, AM Sykulski and EJ Cripps (2024). ‘Debiasing Welch’s Method for Spectral Density Estimation’. Biometrika, 111(4), 1313–1329. paper
R Ou, LC Astfalck, D Sen and DB Dunson (2026). ‘Scalable Bayesian inference for time series via divide-and-conquer’. Accepted (2026), in press, Journal of the American Statistical Association. preprint