Lecturer in Statistics · UNSW Sydney

Lachlan Astfalck

Spatial and spectral statistics, uncertainty quantification — and a lot of applied work in water.

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Lachlan Astfalck

About

I’m a Lecturer in Statistics at the University of New South Wales, with interest in both methodological and applied research. On the methods side: spectral analysis, complex spatio-temporal data, emulation of engineering computer models, and many aspects of uncertainty quantification. I also like water — I do lots of applied work in oceanography, glaciology and hydrodynamics.

Previously I was a Research Fellow for the TIDE ARC ITRH in the School of Physics, Mathematics and Computing at The University of Western Australia, and a Research Fellow in the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds. I’ve also worked in ecological restoration, materials engineering, and prognostics and health management, and consulted for the Australian Wildlife Conservancy.

Selected research

LC Astfalck, AM Sykulski and EJ Cripps (2024). ‘Debiasing Welch’s Method for Spectral Density Estimation’. Biometrika, 111(4), 1313–1329. paper

LC Astfalck, DB Williamson, N Gandy, LJ Gregoire and RF Ivanovic (2024). ‘Coexchangeable Process Modeling for Uncertainty Quantification in Joint Climate Reconstruction’. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 119(547), 1751–1764. paper

LC Astfalck, AM Sykulski and EJ Cripps (2025). ‘Bias Correction of Quadratic Spectral Estimators’. Biometrika, asaf033. paper

R Ou, LC Astfalck, D Sen and DB Dunson (2026). ‘Scalable Bayesian inference for time series via divide-and-conquer’. Accepted (minor revisions), Journal of the American Statistical Association. preprint

LC Astfalck, D Sen, S Patra, EJ Cripps and DB Dunson (2025). ‘Posterior Projection for Inference in Constrained Spaces’. Submitted to the SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification. preprint

Contact

Please contact me via email, I very seldom check any social media channels, including LinkedIn. I am accepting research students in statistics and oceanography, don’t be shy in reaching out.