Publications
In Review
LC Astfalck. (2025). ‘’Universal approximation of auto-covariance functions via spline kernels’’. Submitted to the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B. [Available here.]
LC Astfalck, D Sen, S Patra, EJ Cripps and DB Dunson. (2025). ‘’Posterior Projection for Inference in Constrained Spaces’’. Submitted to the SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification. [Available here.]
T Tang, LC Astfalck, and DB Dunson. (2025). ‘’Efficient Bayesian Inference for Discretely Observed Continuous Time Markov Chains’’. Submitted to the Journal of the American Statistical Association. [Available here.]
RY Zhang, HB Moss, LC Astfalck, EJ Cripps, and DS Leslie. (2025). ‘’Spatio-temporal active learning of time-dependent vector fields using Lagrangian observers’’’. Submitted to The Thirty-Ninth Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems.
Y Zheng, MD Rayson, LC Astfalck, and NL Jones. (2025). ‘’A Machine Learning Parameterization for the Internal Gravity Wave Spectrum’’’. Submitted to the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.[Available here.]
LC Astfalck, CR Bird, & DB Williamson. (2024). ‘’Generalised Bayes Linear Inference’’. Submitted to Bayesian Analysis. [Available here.]
2025
LC Astfalck, AM Sykulski, & EJ Cripps. (2025). ‘’Bias Correction of Quadratic Spectral Estimators’’, Biometrika. asaf033. [Available here.]
MD Rayson, LC Astfalck, ALS Ponte, AP Zulberti, and NL Jones. (2025). ‘’Characteristic velocity and timescales of non-phase-locked internal tides in a mesoscale eddy field’’’. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 130(6) e2024JC021789. [Available here.]
IA Milne, LC Astfalck, M Zed, and J Lee-Kopij. (2025). ‘’Response-Based Forecasting of Vessel Motion: From Physics-Based to Data-Driven Methods’’’. Offshore Technology Conference , OTC.
2024
LC Astfalck, AM Sykulski, & EJ Cripps. (2024). ‘’Debiasing Welch’s Method for Spectral Density Estimation’’, Biometrika, 111(4), 1313-1329. [Available here.]
LC Astfalck, DB Williamson, N Gandy, LJ Gregoire, & RF Ivanovic. (2024). ‘’Coexchangeable Process Modeling for Uncertainty Quantification in Joint Climate Reconstruction’’. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 119(547), 1751–1764. [Available here.]
ALS Ponte, LC Astfalck, MD Rayson, AP Zulberti, & NL Jones. (2024). ‘’Inferring flow energy, space and time scales: freely-drifting vs fixed point observations’’. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics. 31(4), 571-586. [Available here.]
RY Zhang, HB Moss, LC Astfalck, EJ Cripps, and DS Leslie. (2024). ‘’BALLAST: Bayesian Active Learning with Look-ahead Amendment for Sea-drifter Trajectories’’’. NeurIPS 2024 Workshop on Bayesian Decision-making and Uncertainty.
IA Milne, & LC Astfalck. (2024). ‘’Heave response spectra for a semisubmersible in long period swell’’. 24th Australasian Fluid Mechanics Conference.
N Gandy, LC Astfalck, GL Ives, & GE Rivers. (2024). ‘’Ice sheet speed-dating: using expert judgement to identify ’good’ simulations of the LGM North American ice sheets’’. Quaternary Science Reviews, 333:108690. [Available here.]
VL Patterson, LJ Gregoire, RF Ivanovic, N Gandy, J Owen, RS Smith, PJ Valdes, OG Pollard & LC Astfalck. (2024). ‘’Contrasting the Penultimate and Last Glacial Maxima (21 and 140 ka BP) using coupled climate-ice sheet modelling’’’. Accepted in Climate of the Past. [Available here.]
2023
LC Astfalck, M Bertolacci, & EJ Cripps. (2023). ‘’Evaluating probabilistic forecasts for maritime engineering operations’’. Data-Centric Engineering, 4:e15. [Available here.]
OG Pollard, NL Barlow, LJ Gregoire, N Gomex, V Cartelle, JC Ely, & LC Astfalck. (2023). ‘’Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6)’’. The Cryosphere Discussions, 17(11):4751– 4777. [Available here.]
N Gandy, LC Astfalck, LJ Gregoire, RF Ivanovic, & VL Patterson. (2023). ‘’De-tuning a coupled climate ice sheet model to simulate the North American ice sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum’’. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 128(8):e2023JF007250. [Available here.]
2022 and earlier (pre-postdoctoral research)
MA Loake, LC Astfalck, & EJ Cripps. ‘’Modelling sea surface wind measurements on Australia’s North-West Shelf’’’. Ocean Engineering, 244:110308. [Available here.]
M Masarei, LC Astfalck, AL Guzzomi, DJ Merritt, & TE Erickson. (2020). ‘’Soil rock content influences the maximum seedling emergence depth of a dominant arid zone grass’’. Plant and Soil, 450(1):497–509. [Available here.]
LC Astfalck, EJ Cripps, MR Hodkiewicz, & IA Milne. (2019). ‘’A Bayesian approach to the quantification of extremal responses in simulated dynamic structures’’. Ocean Engineering, 182:594–607. [Available here.]
LC Astfalck, EJ Cripps, JP Gosling, & IA Milne. (2019). ‘’Emulation of vessel motion simulators for computationally efficient uncertainty quantification’’. Ocean Engineering, 172:726–736. [Available here.]
LC Astfalck, EJ Cripps, JP Gosling, MR Hodkiewicz, & IA Milne. (2018). ‘’Expert elicitation of directional metocean parameters’’. Ocean Engineering, 161:268–276. [Available here.]
LC Astfalck, GK Kelly, X Li, & TB Sercombe. (2017). ‘’On the breakdown of SiC during the selective laser melting of aluminum matrix composites’’. Advanced Engineering Materials, 19(8):1600835. [Available here.]
LC Astfalck, & MR Hodkiewicz. (2017). ‘’Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling for Bayesian hierarchical regression in prognostics’’’*. Asia Pacific Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society.
LC Astfalck, MR Hodkiewicz, A Keating, EJ Cripps, & M Pecht. (2016). ’’A modelling ecosystem for prognostics’’. Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society.
J Sikorska, MR Hodkiewicz, A D’Cruz, LC Astfalck, and A Keating. ‘’A collaborative data library for testing prognostic models’’. Prognostics and Health Management Society European Conference.