Publications

2026

HB Moss, LC Astfalck, T Cowperthwaite, C Doumont, S Willis, P Hennig et al. (2026). Conditioning Gaussian Processes on Almost Anything. Submitted to NeurIPS 2026.preprint

2026

R Ou, LC Astfalck, D Sen and DB Dunson (2026). Scalable Bayesian inference for time series via divide-and-conquer. Journal of the American Statistical Association, accepted, in press.preprint

2026

Y Zheng, MD Rayson, NL Jones and LC Astfalck (2026). A machine learning parameterization for the internal gravity wave spectrum. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 131(5), e2025JC023028.paper

2026

RY Zhang, HB Moss, LC Astfalck, EJ Cripps and DS Leslie (2026). Spatio-temporal active learning of time-dependent vector fields using Lagrangian observers. Forty-third International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2026).

2026

LC Astfalck, D Sen, S Patra, EJ Cripps and DB Dunson (2026). Posterior Projection for Inference in Constrained Spaces. Submitted to SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification.preprint

2026

T Tang, LC Astfalck and DB Dunson (2026). Efficient Bayesian Inference for Discretely Observed Continuous Time Markov Chains. Submitted to Biometrika.preprint

2026

IA Milne, LC Astfalck, M Zed, J Lee-Kopij and EJ Cripps (2026). Hybrid physics-data driven spectral forecasts of semisubmersible response. Submitted to Ocean Engineering.preprint

2026

LC Astfalck (2026). Universal approximation of auto-covariance functions via spline kernels. Submitted to Spatial Statistics.preprint

2025

LC Astfalck, AM Sykulski and EJ Cripps (2025). Bias Correction of Quadratic Spectral Estimators. Biometrika, asaf033.paper

2025

MD Rayson, LC Astfalck, ALS Ponte, AP Zulberti and NL Jones (2025). Characteristic velocity and timescales of non-phase-locked internal tides in a mesoscale eddy field. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 130(6), e2024JC021789.paper

2025

IA Milne, LC Astfalck, M Zed and J Lee-Kopij (2025). Response-Based Forecasting of Vessel Motion: From Physics-Based to Data-Driven Methods. Offshore Technology Conference.

2024

LC Astfalck, AM Sykulski and EJ Cripps (2024). Debiasing Welch's Method for Spectral Density Estimation. Biometrika, 111(4), 1313–1329.paper

2024

LC Astfalck, DB Williamson, N Gandy, LJ Gregoire and RF Ivanovic (2024). Coexchangeable Process Modeling for Uncertainty Quantification in Joint Climate Reconstruction. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 119(547), 1751–1764.paper

2024

ALS Ponte, LC Astfalck, MD Rayson, AP Zulberti and NL Jones (2024). Inferring flow energy, space and time scales: freely-drifting vs fixed point observations. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 31(4), 571–586.paper

2024

RY Zhang, HB Moss, LC Astfalck, EJ Cripps and DS Leslie (2024). BALLAST: Bayesian Active Learning with Look-ahead Amendment for Sea-drifter Trajectories. NeurIPS 2024 Workshop on Bayesian Decision-making and Uncertainty.

2024

IA Milne and LC Astfalck (2024). Heave response spectra for a semisubmersible in long period swell. 24th Australasian Fluid Mechanics Conference.

2024

N Gandy, LC Astfalck, GL Ives and GE Rivers (2024). Ice sheet speed-dating: using expert judgement to identify "good" simulations of the LGM North American ice sheets. Quaternary Science Reviews, 333, 108690.paper

2024

VL Patterson, LJ Gregoire, RF Ivanovic, N Gandy, J Owen, RS Smith, PJ Valdes, OG Pollard and LC Astfalck (2024). Contrasting the Penultimate and Last Glacial Maxima (21 and 140 ka BP) using coupled climate-ice sheet modelling. Climate of the Past.paper

2023

LC Astfalck, M Bertolacci and EJ Cripps (2023). Evaluating probabilistic forecasts for maritime engineering operations. Data-Centric Engineering, 4, e15.paper

2023

OG Pollard, NL Barlow, LJ Gregoire, N Gomex, V Cartelle, JC Ely and LC Astfalck (2023). Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6). The Cryosphere, 17(11), 4751–4777.paper

2023

N Gandy, LC Astfalck, LJ Gregoire, RF Ivanovic and VL Patterson (2023). De-tuning a coupled climate ice sheet model to simulate the North American ice sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 128(8), e2023JF007250.paper

2022

MA Loake, LC Astfalck and EJ Cripps (2022). Modelling sea surface wind measurements on Australia's North-West Shelf. Ocean Engineering, 244, 110308.paper

2020

M Masarei, LC Astfalck, AL Guzzomi, DJ Merritt and TE Erickson (2020). Soil rock content influences the maximum seedling emergence depth of a dominant arid zone grass. Plant and Soil, 450(1), 497–509.paper

2019

LC Astfalck, EJ Cripps, MR Hodkiewicz and IA Milne (2019). A Bayesian approach to the quantification of extremal responses in simulated dynamic structures. Ocean Engineering, 182, 594–607.paper

2019

LC Astfalck, EJ Cripps, JP Gosling and IA Milne (2019). Emulation of vessel motion simulators for computationally efficient uncertainty quantification. Ocean Engineering, 172, 726–736.paper

2018

LC Astfalck, EJ Cripps, JP Gosling, MR Hodkiewicz and IA Milne (2018). Expert elicitation of directional metocean parameters. Ocean Engineering, 161, 268–276.paper

2017

LC Astfalck, GK Kelly, X Li and TB Sercombe (2017). On the breakdown of SiC during the selective laser melting of aluminum matrix composites. Advanced Engineering Materials, 19(8), 1600835.paper

2017

LC Astfalck and MR Hodkiewicz (2017). Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling for Bayesian hierarchical regression in prognostics. Asia Pacific Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society.

2016

LC Astfalck, MR Hodkiewicz, A Keating, EJ Cripps and M Pecht (2016). A modelling ecosystem for prognostics. Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society.

2016

J Sikorska, MR Hodkiewicz, A D'Cruz, LC Astfalck and A Keating (2016). A collaborative data library for testing prognostic models. Prognostics and Health Management Society European Conference.

A full, current list lives on Google Scholar.